The world of 2030: U.S. declines; food, water may be scarce
Stephen Swintek/Getty Images
Sorry, everyone, but flying cars don't appear in the "Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds" report that the director of national intelligence's office made public on Monday.
Instead, the National
Intelligence Council paints the picture of a world in which the U.S. is
no longer the unquestionably dominant global player; individuals and
small groups may carry out devastating cyber or bioterror attacks; oh,
and food and water may be running short in some places.
The 160-page report is a great
read for anyone in the business of crafting the script for the next
James Bond movie, a treasure trove of potential scenarios for
international intrigue, not to mention super-villainy. But the council
took pains to say that what it foresees is not set in stone. The goal is
to provide policymakers with some idea of what the future holds in
order to help them steer the right economic and military courses.
"We do not seek to predict the future—which would be an impossible
feat—but instead provide a framework for thinking about possible futures
and their implications," the report cautioned.
Other ideas the futurists
reported: Global population will reach "somewhere close to 8.3 billion
people," and food and water may be running scarce in some areas,
especially regions like Africa and the Middle East.
"Climate change will worsen the
outlook for the availability of these critical resources," the report
said. "Climate change analysis suggests that the severity of existing
weather patterns will intensify, with wet areas getting wetter, and dry
and arid areas becoming more so."We are not
necessarily headed into a world of scarcities, but policymakers and
their private sector partners will need to be proactive to avoid such a
future."
What about America in 2030? The
report predicts that the U.S. "most likely will remain 'first among
equals' among the other great powers." But "with the rapid rise of other
countries, the 'unipolar moment' is over and Pax Americana—the era of
American ascendancy in international politics that began in 1945—is fast
winding down."
Also, "Asia will have surpassed
North America and Europe combined in terms of global power, based upon
GDP [Gross Domestic Product], population size, military spending and
technological investment," the report said.
It also suggests that Islamist extremism may be a thing of the past
in 2030. But that doesn't mean small groups won't try to wreak havoc.
"With more widespread access to
lethal and disruptive technologies, individuals who are experts in such
niche areas as cyber systems might sell their services to the highest
bidder, including terrorists who would focus less on causing mass
casualties and more on creating widespread economic and financial
disruptions," said the report.
Four "megatrends" shaping the
world were cited: growing individual empowerment; diffusion of power;
major shifts in demographics; and rising demand for food, water and
energy.
The report also sees the
potential for "black swan" shocks to the system. These include: a severe
pandemic; faster-than-forecast climate change; the collapse of the
European Union; the collapse of China (or its embrace of democracy); and
a reformed Iran that abandons its suspected nuclear weapons program.
They also include a conflict using nuclear, chemical, or biological
weapons, or a large-scale cyber-attack; solar geomagnetic storms that
may knock out satellites and the electric grid; or a sudden retreat of
the U.S. from global affairs.
So what about the flying cars, a
staple of science fiction? The report is mum on that front, but it does
raise the intriguing possibility that "self-driving cars could begin to
address the worsening congestion in urban areas, reduce roadway
accidents, and improve individuals' productivity (by allowing drivers
the freedom to work through their commutes)."
And the cool cats over at Wired
magazine's "Danger Room" national security blog have underlined how the
report sees the growth of other technologies, including "superhumans" potentially roaming the landscape.
No comments:
Post a Comment